Hey Alex,
thanks for your thoughts which in general I totally agree with.
I missed the obvious stages like understanding a phenotype of a rider, analysing the demands of the event, defining the advantages and limiters and setting a training goal.
Next, you probably look at your PD curve and you want to decide if you need to improve your 5 min power, 5s of 5h power and you want to shift your PD curve either to the right or up.
And here you come to the point where you design your ATP - and this is where you need to look if the designed ATP works (in theory). This is where you need to look into Planned TiZ (among other things, of course).
If you need to improve endurance, TTE, that’s one way. If you gonna compete in crit, this is a totally different story, you need anaerobic power and you probably will gonna work in zones 5, 6 and up.
All in all, I totally agree with you, that math is just a tool, not a goal. In wrong hands it indeed may bring more harm, than good. But one have to try and get her own experience. And it’s important to constantly analyse if the designed plan indeed brings you expected benefits and works well. Trial and error, modify, test again etc. etc.