So I built a calculator that currently does not exist. I did some basic validation and it looks good. If anyone wants to help test it it would be ideal. It’s similar to Best Bike Split but made for average people not just racers. How long are you likely to finish a route based on your riding style.
Cool. Thanks. Yes everyone has said seems reasonably accurate to them. Generally this math is very predictable but I added extra “small” stuff to it for example for people not pushing FTP Wattage downhill…
Thanx for this tool. Quite helpful. Inserted a route from Garmin I plotted recently and completed in a certain time and compared it to the tool and it was quite close within either a few minutes or average speed differential.
Sweet, thanks for testing. Once we get more confirmation it is useful we will build it into the TD app and let you select routes from Garmin directly and remember your settings so select route is the only thing you have to do.
Maybe even cool is send email when you have a new route in garmin with the predicted time.
Great! I worked with Andrea on Trek race team TT predictions - he could get within 15 seconds on 40-50km TTs, and my scripts were usually within 30 seconds of his calculations. This stuff can be surprisingly accurate, especially if you know Cda, W’ (for shorter efforts), and wind conditions. Wind is the biggest variable.
You can actually “learn” Cda from the data if you have accurate wind measurements. I tested future wind predictions but they’re totally unreliable - every API gives different results and none match actual airport conditions even an hour away.
I could also add section power targets with elevation mapping if useful, though without W’ input it would be less accurate.
Happy to enhance the current calculator or make a dedicated TT racer version.